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RESEARCH
 

 

RESEARCH INTERESTS

  • Time Series Econometrics. Lévy Processes & Stochastic Volatility Modeling

  • Bayesian Approach in Statistics and Econometrics. Probability and Statistics in Engineering, Social Sciences and Medicine

 PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES

JA.18_23 01- Uçak, H., Yelgen, E. & Arı, Y. (2023) The volatility connectedness between chicken and selected crops. World's Poultry Science Journal, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2023.2252408. (WoS - SCI)

JA.17_22. 09- Tuncer, M., Akbulut, N., Turhan, M. S., & Arı, Y. (2022). Time-Varying Network Connectedness Between the Organizational Ecology of Transportation and Storage Firms and Macroeconomic Variables. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 22 (2), 209–223. DOI: 10.2478/foli-2022-0027.  https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/foli-2022-0027. (SCOPUS)

JA.16_22. 08- Turhan, M. S. & Arı, Y. (2022). Entrepreneurship in the tourism sector with the perspective of organizational ecology: Evidence from Türkiye. Journal of Management and Organization Studies, 7(2), 27-46. DOI: 10.15659/yoad.8.1.002

JA.15_22.07 – Ari, Y. (2022). Chasing volatility of USD/TRY foreign exchange rate: The comparison of CARR, EWMA, and GARCH models. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 37, 107-127. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2022.37.1113670 (TR DİZİN)

JA.14_22.06 – Arı, Y. (2022). TVP-VAR Based CARR-Volatility Connectedness: Evidence from The Russian-Ukraine Conflict.  Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi. DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1138999 (TR-Dizin)

JA.13_22.05 – Uçak H., Arı Y., Yelgen E. (2022): The volatility connectedness among fertilisers and agricultural crop prices: Evidence from selected main agricultural products. Agric. Econ. – Czech, 68: 348–360. DOI: 10.17221/147/2022-AGRICECON  (WoS-SSCI)

JA.12_22.04 – Arı, Y. (2022). The comparison of range-based volatility estimators and an application of TVP-VAR-based connectedness. Journal of Life Economics. 9(3): 147-157, DOI: 10.15637/jlecon.9.3.03

JA.11_22.03 – Arı, Y. (2022). USD/TRY and foreign banks in Turkey: Evidence by TVP-VAR, Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 67, pages 5-26. http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2022_67_005-026.pdf . (Scopus)

JA.10_22. – Arı, Y. (2022). FROM DISCRETE TO CONTINUOUS: GARCH VOLATILITY MODELING OF THE BITCOIN. Ege Academic Review, 22 (3), 353-370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.819934 (WoS-ESCI)

JA.09_22. – Uçak, H., Yelgen E., & Arı, Y. (2022). The Role of Energy on Fruit and Vegetables Price Volatility: Evidence from Turkey. Bio-based and Applied Economics. DOI: 10.36253/bae-10896 (WoS-ESCI + Scopus)

JA.08_21. - Turhan, M. S., & Arı, Y. (2021). Organizational Foundings, Disbandings, and The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from The Turkish Construction Sector. Ekonomski vjesnik/Econviews - Review of Contemporary Business, Entrepreneurship and Economic Issues, 34(2). https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.34.2.7. (WoS-ESCI)

JA.07_21. - Turhan, M. S., & Arı, Y. (2021) Örgütsel Ekoloji ve Kooperatif Örgütlenmeleri: Türkiye’de Tarım, Ormancılık ve Balıkçılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Analiz, Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 56(3), 1436-1454. doi: 10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.21.08.1609  (TR DİZİN)

JA.06_21. - Arı, Y. (2021). Volatility spillovers effect analysis during Covid-19 period using EWMA model: The case of health sector stocks in ISE. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi , 14 (4) , 1453-1467 . DOI: https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.917674. (TR DİZİN + Index Copernicus + EBSCO)

JA.05_21. - Arı, Y. (2021). Engle-Granger Cointegration Analysis Between Garch-Type Volatilities of Gold and Silver Returns . Alanya Akademik Bakış , 5 (2) , 589-618 . Doi: 10.29023/alanyaakademik.838284  (TR DİZİN + Index Copernicus)

JA.04_19. – Arı, Y., & Papadopoulos A. (2019).  Bayesian Estimation of Student-t GARCH Model Using Lindley’s Approximation.  Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 53(1/2019), 75-88., Doi: 10.24818/18423264/53.1.19.05. (WoS- SCI-E & SSCI)

JA.03_19. - Çiftçi, A. & Arı, Y. (2019). Konut Fiyatları Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Alanya Örneği . Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi , 23 (2) , 229-248 .  Paper Link (Index Copernicus)

JA.02_16. - Ari Y., & Papadopoulos S. A. (2016). Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the ARCH model with Normal Innovations using Lindley’s approximation. Journal of Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, issue 4-2016, Vol. 50, pp. 217-234. Paper link (WoS- SCI-E & SSCI) http://www.ecocyb.ase.ro/nr20164

JA.01_11. – Ari, Y. & Ünal, G. (2011). Continuous Modelling of Foreign Exchange Rate of USD versus TRY. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies. Vol.3, No.11, pp.251-261. Paper Link (Scopus + EconLit +EBSCO) 

SUBMITTED / ONGOING PAPERS

 BOOK CHAPTERS

  • BC.10_22 - Ari, Y. (2022). - A Statistical Approach to the Urbanization: The Case of Turkey. In: O. Olawale Awe, Kim Love, Eric A. Vance (Eds). Promoting Statistical Practice and Collaboration in Developing Countries. ISBN 9781032195551. Chapman and Hall/CRC.  https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003261148

  • BC.09_22 - Ari, Y., Yelgen, E. & Uçak H. (2022). The Impact of Covid-19 On the Volatility Spillover Between BIST-BILISIM and Cryptocurrencies. In Mansour, N., & Ben Salem, S. (Eds.). COVID-19's Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market and the Digital Economy. IGI Global. (Feb 2022 Forthcoming)  https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-9117-8

  • BC.08_22 - Ari, Y. (2022). A Statistical Analysis for the Accessibility of Electronic Data Delivery System of the Central Bank of the Turkish Republic. In Y. Akgül (Eds.), App and Website Accessibility Developments and Compliance Strategies (pp. 38-57). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7848-3.ch002

  • BC.07_21 - Arı Y. (2021) Using COGARCH-Filtered Volatility in Modelling Within ARDL Framework. In: Adıgüzel Mercangöz B. (eds) Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54108-8_13

  • BC.06_21 – Ari, Y. (2021). Continuous Autoregressive Moving Average Models: From Discrete AR to Lévy-Driven CARMA Models. In D. Samanta, R. Rao Althar, S. Pramanik, & S. Dutta (Eds.), Methodologies and Applications of Computational Statistics for Machine Intelligence (pp. 118-141). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7701-1.ch007

  • BC.05_20 - Ari, Y. (2020). Volatility Transmission Model Using DCC-GARCH Representation. In Evci, S & Sharma, A (Eds), Studies at the Crossroads of Management & Economics (pp. 237-250). IJOPEC Publication.  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341626785

  • BC.04_20 - Ari, Y. (2020). The Impact of USD-TRY Forex Rate Volatility on Imports to Turkey from Central Asia. In B. Christiansen, & H. Sezerel (Eds.), Economic, Educational, and Touristic Development in Asia (pp. 70-89). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2239-4.ch004

  • BC.03_19 - Arı, Y. (2020). COGARCH Models: An Explicit Solution to the Stochastic Differential Equation for Variance. In S. Alparslan Gök, & D. Aruğaslan Çinçin (Eds.), Emerging Applications of Differential Equations and Game Theory (pp. 79-97). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-0134-4.ch005

  • BC.02_18 - Arı Y. (2018) Bayesian Estimation of GARCH(1,1) Model Using Tierney-Kadane’s Approximation. In: Tsounis N., Vlachvei A. (eds) Advances in Time Series Data Methods in Applied Economic Research. ICOAE 2018. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02194-8_24

  • BC.01_18 - Yilmaz, G., & Ari Y. (2018). Analyzing the Effect of the Increase in Corporation Tax Rate on Corporation Tax Revenues via Multiple Regression with Dummy Variables. In Christos Papatheodorou, Savaş Çevik, Dimitris Paitaridis, Güneş Yılmaz (Eds). Political Economy of Labour, Income Distribution & Exclusion, pp.95-110. IJOPEC Publication. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341626948

 

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS/ PROCEEDINGS 

 

CP.24_23 - Akbulut N. & Ari Y. (2023). TVP-VAR Frequency Connectedness Between the Foreign Exchange Rates of Non-Euro Area Member Countries. The XVII. International Scientific Conference on Contemporary Problems of Economics, Management, Finance, Insurance, and Banking. Plock, Poland.

CP.23_23 - Akbulut N., Aktürk, B., & Ari Y. (2023).  Finansal Yatırım Araçlarının TÜFE Bazlı Aylık Reel Getiri Volatiliteleri Üzerine TVP-VAR Frekans Bağlantılılık Analizi. Ekonomi ve Finans Kongresi, İstanbul Beykent Üniversitesi, İstanbul, Türkiye.

CP.22_22 - Tuncer M., Akbulut N., Turhan M.S. & Ari Y. (2022) Linkage Between Organizational Ecology of Transportation and Storage Firms and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from TVP-VAR Based Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness. The XVI. International Scientific Conference on Contemporary Problems of Economics, Management, Finance, Insurance, and Banking. Plock, Poland.

CP.21_21 - ARI Y. (2021).  A Proposed Bayesian Method for The Parameter Estimation of COGARCH (1,1) Model via Lindley’s Approximation. In L. Lusa & A. Kastrin (Eds). 17th Applied Statistics 2021 Proceedings. (p. 82).(Abstract: https://akastrin.si/as-book-2021.pdf) (Poster Presentation: https://akastrin.si/as2021/files/posters/poster/66.pdf ) (Video:https://akastrin.si/as2021/files/posters/video/66.mp4)

CP.20_21 - ARI Y. (2021).  An Application of The Diebold-Yilmaz Volatility Spillover Index Using Lévy Driven COGARCH Models. In M. Atan (Ed.). XXI. International Symposium on Econometrics, Operational Research and Statistics Abstracts. p. 212. Holistence Publications (E-ISBN: 978-625-7047-85-2) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354736225

CP.19_21 - ARI Y. (2021).  An ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Urbanization: The Case of Turkey.  2020 Plenary 2021-4: Importance of Statistics in Urban Planning and Development. LISA. https://www.lisa2020.org/symposium/  (Invited Speaker)

CP.18_21 - ARI Y., & UYMAZ A.O. (2021).  Financial Connectedness Between Construction Sector, Ethereum and Gold: The Role of Covid-19 Pandemic. In L. Akbaş (ed.). 13th International Conference of Strategic Research on Scientific Studies and Education (ICoSReSSE) Abstracts Book, 44-44. SRA Academic Publishing. (ISBN: 978-625-7148-21-4). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354736146

CP.17_21 - ARI Y. (2021).  The Impact of Covid-19 On Long Memory of BIST-30 Index: The Comparison of Short-Memory and Long-Memory GARCH Models.  In Ö. K. Tüfekci (ed.)   13th International Conference of Strategic Research on Scientific Studies and Education (ICoSReSSE) Proceedings, pp. 325-333. SRA Academic Publishing. (ISBN: 978-625-7148-21-4). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354736000

CP.16_20 – ARI, Y. (2020).  Nonlinear Modelling of BIST-100 Index Returns Via Tar and Markov-Switching Models. In B. Darıcı, H.M. Ertuğrul, F. Ayhan (Eds.). VII ICOAEF International Conference on Applied Economics and Finance Extended with Social Sciences Full Paper Proceeding, pp. 50-60. (ISBN: 978-625-44365-0-5). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358009278

CP.15_20 - Kotoko Alifa, A., & Ari, Y. (2020). An Empirical Study on Turkey and CEMAC Trade Relations Using GARCH Volatility and ARDL Cointegration. In V. M. Srivastava, Y. Eratlı Şirin, S. Khadhraouı Ontunc (Eds.).  International African Conference on Current Studies of Science, Technology and Social Sciences Proceedings Book, pp. 270 – 282. (ISBN - 978-625-7898-12-6). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358009463 & https://www.africansummit.org/pdf

CP.14_19 - ARI Y. (2019). The Impact of the COGARCH Filtered Forex Volatility on BIST-100 Index. In B. Darıcı, H.M. Ertuğrul, F. Ayhan (Eds.). VII ICOAEF International Conference on Applied Economics and Finance Extended with Social Sciences Full Paper Proceeding, pp. 137-149. (ISBN: 978-605-69839-6-2).   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357718620

CP.13_19 – Çiftçi, A. & Ari Y. (2019). The Housing Prices in Alanya: A Hedonic Pricing Model Application. In N. Çil, V. Yılancı, M. Sağır (Eds.). III. International Symposium on Economics, Finance and Econometrics Full Paper Proceeding, pp. 16-24. (ISBN: 978-605-82381-9-0). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358039221

CP.12_19 - ARI Y. (2019). Multivariate GARCH Model Via Cholesky Decomposition. In N. Çil, V. Yılancı, M. Sağır (Eds.). III. International Symposium on Economics, Finance and Econometrics Full Paper Proceeding, pp. 98-109. (ISBN: 978-605-82381-9-0). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358038972

CP.11_19 - ARI Y., & TOKTAŞ Y. (2019). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkey’s Livestock Imports. In H. Uçak (Ed.). 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics Proceedings Book, pp. 370-381. (ISBN: 978-605-81058-1-2).  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337651645

CP.10_19 - ÇİFTÇİ A., & ARI Y. (2019). Antalya İlinde Yabancilara Satilan Konut Sayisi Üzerine Bir Eşbütünleşme Ve VECM Analizi. In H., Keskin (Ed.).  Vi. International Social, Human and Administrative Sciences Symposium, 1 (1), 479-488. (ISBN: 978-605-7602-94-7) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337651411

CP.09_18 – YILMAZ, G. & ARI, Y. (2018). Kurumlar Vergisi Gelirleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. In: H., Sağlam & M. E., Kenanoğlu (Eds.)   ICOPEC 2018: 10 Years After the Great Recession: Orthodox versus Heterodox Economics 9. International Conference on Political Economy Abstracts & Proceeding Book, 1 (26), 145-160. (ISBN: 978-1-912503-47-6). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358039445

CP.08_18 - ARI Y. (2018). Bayesian Estimation of GARCH (1,1) Model Using Tierney-Kadane’s Approximation. In N. Tsounis and A. Vlachvei (eds.), Advances in Time Series Data Methods in Applied Economic Research, Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02194-8_24 & https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329606344

CP.07_16 - ARI Y., Papadopoulos A. (2016). Bayesian Estimation of Student-t GARCH Model using Lindley’s Approximation. 17th International Symposium on Econometrics, Operations Research and Statistics Abstracts Book, pp. 34-36. Retrieved from: http://eyi2016.cumhuriyet.edu.tr/abstracts.pdf  /  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358042628

CP.06_15 – ARI, Y., & Papadopoulos, A. (2015). Bayesian Estimation of the Parameters of the ARCH Model using Lindley’s Approximation. The International 9th ​​Bi-Annual Statistics Congress Abstracts Book, pp. 14-15. Retrieved from: http://www.istkon.net/ISTKON9.pdf  / https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358042208

CP.05_12 - ARI Y., Yıldırım Y., & Bayracı S. (2012). Long-Memory Financial Time Series Modeling of the ISE100 Index. 8. World Congress in Probability and Statistics (Abstract Paper / Poster). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358040268

CP.04_12 - ARI Y. (2012). Volatility Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rate: Discrete GARCH Family versus Continuous GARCH. 13th International Symposium on Econometrics, Statistics and Operations Research 2012 (Full Paper / Oral Presentation) 

CP.03_11 - Bayracı S., Yıldırım Y., & Ari Y. (2011). Stochastic Volatility Modeling in Istanbul Stock Exchange: Heston Model etc. COGARCH (1.1). In A. Duran & C. Çetin (Eds.).  Abstracts Book of International Conference on Mathematical Finance and Economics. p. 103. Istanbul Technical University. (ISBN 978-975-561-398-7). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358039497

CP.02_11 – Bayracı, S., Ari Y., & Yıldırım Y. (2011). A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) Model for The Turkish Financial Markets. In B. Güloglu (Eds.) Proceedings of the 12th International Symposium on Econometrics, Statistics and Operations Research, 752-767. Pamukkale University. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358039758

CP.01_11 - ARI Y., ÜNAL G. (2011). Continuous Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rate of USD versus TRY. International Conference on Economics and Finance (Abstract Paper)

 

 SEMINARS GIVEN

  • “Recent Bayesian Estimation Methods for GARCH Models”, Warsaw University of Life Sciences. [July 2018]

  • “Stochastic Volatility Models and Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models”, Yeditepe University. [March 2016]

  • “Parametric versus Non-parametric Tests in Hypothesis Testing”, invited lecturer to Research Methods for Psychology, Yeditepe University. [July 2015]

  • “Statistical Methods in Language Development Studies”, SDU [Feb 2014]

  • “Stochastic Calculus and Stochastic Differential Equations”, Financial Economics Graduate Programme, Yeditepe University. [Oct 2008]

  • “The Basics of Financial Mathematics”, Financial Economics Graduate Programme, Yeditepe University. [Sep 2008]

SEMINARS & WORKSHOPS ATTENDED

  • Lectures on Lévy Processes and Stochastic Calculus” by Professor David Applebaum, 5th-9th Dec 2011, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey.

  •  “V. Student Recruitment Workshop”, Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) / Higher Education Business Council (EEIK), Istanbul, Turkey.  [May 2017]

 COMPUTER SKILLS

  • R, S-Plus, C, JAMOVI, JASP, PSPP, SPSS, Eviews, JMulti, Gretl, OxMetrics, JSP, HTML, CSS

 PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIP

  • International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics - Member

  • Econometric Research Association - Member

  • Turkish Statistical Association - Member

 REVIEWING & EDITORIAL EXPERIENCE

  • Applied Economics – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • Journal of Applied Statistics – (SCI) – reviewer

  • International Journal of Finance & Economics – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • Buildings – (SCI-E) – reviewer

  • Technological Forecasting and Social Change - An International Journal – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • Advances in Meteorology – (SCI-E) – reviewer

  • International Journal of Accounting and Information Management – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • Children and Youth Services Review – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • TUBITAK Turk Journal Electric Engineering & Computer Science – (SCI-E) – reviewer

  • Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology – (SSCI) – reviewer

  • Electronic Journal of Social Sciences (SBedergi) - Editorial Board Member

  • Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences (Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi) – (Index Copernicus) – reviewer

  • International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics – reviewer

  • Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences – reviewer

  • Alanya Academic Review – (ULKABİM) – reviewer

  • Journal of Selçuk University Social Sciences Vocational School – reviewer

  • The Journal of International Lingual Social and Educational Sciences – reviewer

  • Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute – (ULKABİM) – reviewer

  • Istanbul Gelisim University Journal of Social Sciences – (ULKABİM) – reviewer